At this time a week ago, I was really feeling some positive vibes about Florida’s chances of winning in Tallahassee. But they have subsided. After watching the Gator offense struggle to score 23 points against a bad Jacksonville State defense, I just don’t see where the points are going to come from to beat the Seminoles.

The Gators are going to have major problems getting first downs Saturday, much less sustaining drives against the nation’s No. 1 total defense. Maybe if the Gators can hit a few big plays it could change the game. I just don’t see that happening. The big plays have been missing all season, so there’s no reason to think that will change against a great defense that can pressure with a four-man rush and cover in the back end.

Do I think Florida can win this game? Yes. Kind of. Sort of. But I see only one scenario where that happens: the Gators are going to have to win two of the three phases — defense and special teams — in a huge way. If they can do that, yes, absolutely they can win this game. The defense is going to have to come up with turnovers, the special teams will need a big game out of Kyle Christy and maybe a return for a touchdown or a blocked punt for a score. And the offense has to do its part if the Gators hope to win playing field-position football. The Gators have to take care of the ball. They’ve lost only once this season, and it was the one game where UF turned the ball over. And if the defense or special teams put the offense in or near the red zone, the offense has to convert it into points, preferably six.

So, it can happen. Florida can win this game. If the Gators can beat LSU, certainly they can beat the Seminoles.

But, I’m just not feeling it.

Prediction: Florida State 28, Florida 6

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